Seven Oaks, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

525
FXUS62 KCAE 102241
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
641 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through the
early part of the week ahead before returning to normal later
in the week. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected the remainder of today and
Monday as deeper moisture returns to the Southeast. Then, a
more typical summertime pattern returns with scattered,
afternoon showers and storms for mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered showers to continue overnight.

A weak surface trof remains over the southern FA early this
evening, providing enough surface convergence to maintain
development of scattered showers overnight. The coverage should
diminish as daytime heating, and therefore CAPE, decreases, but
given the trof will hang around, there will still be a few
showers late into the night. Thunder has been limited to the
southern CSRA so far, and I don`t see any reason for it to
expand considerably, so I think isolated at best will hold in
the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Below-normal temperatures continue Monday with scattered to
  numerous showers and possibly some embedded thunder.

- Temperatures warm a bit Tuesday but more scattered to
  numerous showers/storms are expected.

Monday and Monday Night: Some isolated to scattered showers may
be on going to start the day Monday as onshore low level flow
continues to usher in deep moisture, keeping PWAT`s between
2.1-2.3" throughout the day. Into the afternoon, the HREF mean
solution and multiple models suggest a weak shortwave may slide
into SC from the southeast as inverted surface troughing
generally continues to move through the area along a diffuse
frontal boundary near the SC coast. This should bring a similar
afternoon/evening as today with scattered to numerous showers
and cooler temperatures. The main difference between today and
Monday is forecast soundings and HREF members generally depict a
bit more MUCAPE (between 800-1500 J/kg) developing and thus the
chance for some embedded thunder is a bit higher. The higher
potential for some convective activity also brings an elevated
risk for efficient rainfall (with the already favorable moisture
transport and high PWAT`s) and possible localized spots of
flooding where training occurs. This is highlighted well in the
12Z HREF LPMM where it depicts localized spots of 2-3.5" of
rainfall in the eastern Midlands due to the higher potential for
some convection here. Individual members are not as high in
potential totals (outside of the HRW suite) and thus much of the
heavy rain potential will be dependent on convective
development and if this trains over the same area. Some shower
activity is expected to continue into the overnight hours but
this should be fairly light and more isolated to scattered.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: The overall patterns continues to
shift Tuesday as upper ridging and high pressure slowly work
toward the region, bringing slightly warmer temperatures in the
low to mid 80s, though another shortwave is progged to move into
the FA, bringing another afternoon and evening of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms with probabilities for PWAT`s
remaining over 2" greater than 70%, though moisture transport
and overall flow generally weaken some and move a bit more
southwesterly to westerly. Unlike the past couple nights,
confidence in showers lingering much into the overnight is not
very high with weaker forcing in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Warming trend the remainder of the period with more typical
  afternoon shower/storm chances.

Confidence into the extended remains fairly high as mean
ensemble solutions and their deterministic counterparts
generally agree that upper ridging and surface high pressure
build into the region, bringing temperatures that warm and reach
near normal by Thursday or Friday. NAEFS PWAT`s have not
changed much however with PWAT`s near the 90th percentile
expected much of the period, aiding in driving more seasonal
chances for showers and storms during the afternoon and evening
each day into the start of this weekend. The only thing of note
to keep an eye on is both of the most recent deterministic
ECMWF and GFS show the upper riding becoming a bit more
suppressed Friday-Saturday with possible ribbons of shortwave
energy reaching the FA as troughing move into the Great Lakes.
This would possibly bring greater rain chances and slightly
cooler temperatures, but outside of these deterministic runs,
ensemble guidance has not trended toward this solution much so
confidence in this remains toward the low side.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions likely over much of the next 24 hours.

Regional radar continues to show light to moderate shower
activity moving through all taf locations this evening. These
will continue the next few hours, with mvfr ceiling and
visibility restrictions possible as they move across taf sites.
Later tonight, guidance continues to show ifr ceiling
restrictions taking hold at all taf locations, with ceilings
dropping to around 700ft between 03z-06z. Some fog, drizzle, or
mist is also possible as abundant moisture is in place overnight.
After sunrise Monday, ceilings will be slow to improve, but are
forecast to rise back to mvfr heights around 15z. In addition,
rain chances will begin to increase again by late morning,
lasting through the afternoon. Winds generally remain easterly
through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Deep moisture remains in place early
this week allowing for periods of restrictions and convection each
day. The highest rain chances will be Monday afternoon into
Tuesday. Beyond that more typical summertime conditions return.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$